Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The typical figure of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new government figures. Nevertheless, public safety experts have cautioned that homicide figures could fail to indicate better national safety.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in November versus almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This information was delivered by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had in these past months is remarkably notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that the previous month the smallest number of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Enhanced coordination between various authorities.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

However, security researchers urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is notably true given the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for gauging the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to accurately identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was also an issue because it could mask days when there were notably high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains beset by high violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s very questionable,” the analyst remarked.