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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.