🔗 Share this article

Only two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of votes added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went kind of poorly for him, in which the opponent would have essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously backed the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I hope he does so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents supported the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. However overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because youth reside there, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.